diff --git a/changelog.d/17767.misc b/changelog.d/17767.misc
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000..abe00a37c3
--- /dev/null
+++ b/changelog.d/17767.misc
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Fix perf when streams don't change often.
diff --git a/synapse/util/caches/stream_change_cache.py b/synapse/util/caches/stream_change_cache.py
index 16fcb00206..03503abe0f 100644
--- a/synapse/util/caches/stream_change_cache.py
+++ b/synapse/util/caches/stream_change_cache.py
@@ -142,9 +142,9 @@ class StreamChangeCache:
         """
         assert isinstance(stream_pos, int)
 
-        # _cache is not valid at or before the earliest known stream position, so
+        # _cache is not valid before the earliest known stream position, so
         # return that the entity has changed.
-        if stream_pos <= self._earliest_known_stream_pos:
+        if stream_pos < self._earliest_known_stream_pos:
             self.metrics.inc_misses()
             return True
 
@@ -186,7 +186,7 @@ class StreamChangeCache:
             This will be all entities if the given stream position is at or earlier
             than the earliest known stream position.
         """
-        if not self._cache or stream_pos <= self._earliest_known_stream_pos:
+        if not self._cache or stream_pos < self._earliest_known_stream_pos:
             self.metrics.inc_misses()
             return set(entities)
 
@@ -238,9 +238,9 @@ class StreamChangeCache:
         """
         assert isinstance(stream_pos, int)
 
-        # _cache is not valid at or before the earliest known stream position, so
+        # _cache is not valid before the earliest known stream position, so
         # return that an entity has changed.
-        if stream_pos <= self._earliest_known_stream_pos:
+        if stream_pos < self._earliest_known_stream_pos:
             self.metrics.inc_misses()
             return True
 
@@ -270,9 +270,9 @@ class StreamChangeCache:
         """
         assert isinstance(stream_pos, int)
 
-        # _cache is not valid at or before the earliest known stream position, so
+        # _cache is not valid before the earliest known stream position, so
         # return None to mark that it is unknown if an entity has changed.
-        if stream_pos <= self._earliest_known_stream_pos:
+        if stream_pos < self._earliest_known_stream_pos:
             return AllEntitiesChangedResult(None)
 
         changed_entities: List[EntityType] = []
diff --git a/tests/util/test_stream_change_cache.py b/tests/util/test_stream_change_cache.py
index af1199ef8a..c41f5706af 100644
--- a/tests/util/test_stream_change_cache.py
+++ b/tests/util/test_stream_change_cache.py
@@ -53,8 +53,8 @@ class StreamChangeCacheTests(unittest.HomeserverTestCase):
         # return True, whether it's a known entity or not.
         self.assertTrue(cache.has_entity_changed("user@foo.com", 0))
         self.assertTrue(cache.has_entity_changed("not@here.website", 0))
-        self.assertTrue(cache.has_entity_changed("user@foo.com", 3))
-        self.assertTrue(cache.has_entity_changed("not@here.website", 3))
+        self.assertTrue(cache.has_entity_changed("user@foo.com", 2))
+        self.assertTrue(cache.has_entity_changed("not@here.website", 2))
 
     def test_entity_has_changed_pops_off_start(self) -> None:
         """
@@ -76,9 +76,11 @@ class StreamChangeCacheTests(unittest.HomeserverTestCase):
         self.assertTrue("user@foo.com" not in cache._entity_to_key)
 
         self.assertEqual(
-            cache.get_all_entities_changed(3).entities, ["user@elsewhere.org"]
+            cache.get_all_entities_changed(2).entities,
+            ["bar@baz.net", "user@elsewhere.org"],
         )
-        self.assertFalse(cache.get_all_entities_changed(2).hit)
+        self.assertFalse(cache.get_all_entities_changed(1).hit)
+        self.assertTrue(cache.get_all_entities_changed(2).hit)
 
         # If we update an existing entity, it keeps the two existing entities
         cache.entity_has_changed("bar@baz.net", 5)
@@ -89,7 +91,8 @@ class StreamChangeCacheTests(unittest.HomeserverTestCase):
             cache.get_all_entities_changed(3).entities,
             ["user@elsewhere.org", "bar@baz.net"],
         )
-        self.assertFalse(cache.get_all_entities_changed(2).hit)
+        self.assertFalse(cache.get_all_entities_changed(1).hit)
+        self.assertTrue(cache.get_all_entities_changed(2).hit)
 
     def test_get_all_entities_changed(self) -> None:
         """
@@ -114,7 +117,8 @@ class StreamChangeCacheTests(unittest.HomeserverTestCase):
         self.assertEqual(
             cache.get_all_entities_changed(3).entities, ["user@elsewhere.org"]
         )
-        self.assertFalse(cache.get_all_entities_changed(1).hit)
+        self.assertFalse(cache.get_all_entities_changed(0).hit)
+        self.assertTrue(cache.get_all_entities_changed(1).hit)
 
         # ... later, things gest more updates
         cache.entity_has_changed("user@foo.com", 5)
@@ -149,7 +153,7 @@ class StreamChangeCacheTests(unittest.HomeserverTestCase):
         # With no entities, it returns True for the past, present, and False for
         # the future.
         self.assertTrue(cache.has_any_entity_changed(0))
-        self.assertTrue(cache.has_any_entity_changed(1))
+        self.assertFalse(cache.has_any_entity_changed(1))
         self.assertFalse(cache.has_any_entity_changed(2))
 
         # We add an entity